I was reading this article and today on CNN about Libya buying 1.2 million of the MIT based $100 laptops and a though occurred to me…
In 5 years time, if a few other countries were to adopt these PCs, Linux could gain serious traction
Think about this daunting proposition for a moment, let’s analyze some of the factors. Let’s say that 5,000,000 of these get sold. US markets expected 62 million units sold for PCs this year. With a population of 299,956,103 stated by the Census Bureau this year, that is 20% of the population getting new PCs. With Windows having a 97% marketshare, that’s means that Linux has nearly no means to gain traction in the US.
Now let’s look at Libya’s population of 5,765,563. If they buy the 1.2M laptops, then that’s an immediate 20% new computers purchased on top of already intended purchases and if they were to purchase 20% like the US (which I highly doubt) that gives Microsoft Windows a less than 50% market share and all of the sudden Linux is a competitor. Now let me say for one moment that I am sure these PCs will not get put to business use and surely will not take hot licensing revenue away from Microsoft, but there is one other factor to consider.
The Google Factor
Everyone knows that Google has it’s eyes on Microsoft. It’s online services such as writely and it’s spreadsheet apps are serious contenders for service based apps. Google makes it’s bucks on Advertising though. When the US spends an estimated $2 Billion dollars on advertising to children, all of the sudden an incredible incentive has been created for Google to create rich education applications to offer for free that are web based and advertising funded. When you take this cheap Linux box, with it’s network connectivity, and give it a wealth of good applications, how many more countries will buy in. India has moved it’s educational system nearly all Linux. Will these children adopt Google’s (or some other software vendor’s) fantastic new software? Will these children who have grown up using Linux be more apt to stay the course as adults? These questions bring in some interesting points of view.
I myself blasted these notebooks because I think there are more pressing needs for the money elsewhere in the world, but when I see Libya cough up $250 million to equip all of it’s school children with them, all I can think is, “who is next?” Let’s face it, children grow up, people tend to keep things consistent if possible, and companies like Google will jump at the chance for a captive marketing audience.
If Google were to gobble up Ubuntu or one of the solidified Linux distributions, and one or two PC manufacturers were brave enough to withstand Microsoft’s brutal licensing tactics, we could see some really interesting things in the next few years.
Editor’s Note: I am a big Microsoft fan, the closest thing I use to Linux is a OSX Mac. This is only commentary and I am not a MS basher.
Link to Report: Libya buys laptops for schoolchildren – CNN.com
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You answered most of the questions yourself when you said “that I am sure these PCs will not get put to business use”.
This difference will be like playing with toy cars as children until you grow up and get to drive a real one. Seriously…these apps simply will not have the power, security, and ability that businesses and serious home PC users require.
I see your point though – the numbers may look promising to Linux and Google and everyone else out there with the eyes on the big boys, but its looks. It’s not a threat, it’s not going to become a threat. You can cut half of those for nonuse due to the ones that are sold for 5 bucks, stolen, or simply unusable do to the lack of training. Plus they’re chop boxes…what about durability? What about internet access – no Google?
If anyone wants a piece of the action, invest a few billion buying those PCs and giving them to millions of children in the US ….even then…they’re still matchbox cars….
Microsoft’s brutal licensing tactics??????
Smile
A Linux machine, even it is very cheap, is not toys. If it wins in school, it wins the future. Do not compare this with Apple’s Macs. MS will lose its market shares in the long run for sure.
I’ve been around a while. I recall the early ’80s when Windows, actually DOS, was just catching on. People in business, especially IT management, said PC’s would never amount to anything. Why would anyone need a PC when you had IBM mainframes and terminals on everyones desk? These days I hear the same comments regarding Linux. It’s just a toy. It won’t be used in business. Proving once again that history does in fact repeat itself. Linux is probably already used in business more than we realize. How would anyone know for sure? There are no licenses to count. And it runs very well on obsolete Windows hardware. I use it myself at home and in business. I know lots of others do as well.
Linux is just as powerful if not moreso than Micro$oft. Ubuntu, for example, comes with Open Office Suite, the open source equivelent of M$ Office. Now not only do you get this software with the free OS, you get the ability to run any Office file extension, plus many more.
You also learn the intricies of computers dealing in Linux. Compiling software from source code, using programs such as apt, it lets you know what your computer can really do. Not just having Windows say that you dont have permission to do X, Y, and Z.
Pertaining to brutal licensing tactics, that is more than accurate. Microsoft basically says that they will have the lionshare of the market. They browbeat manufacturer’s into putting only a Windows OS and other Microsoft software on their machines prepackaged.
I started as someone using windows and wanting more. Then my friend introduced me to Ubuntu linux and I haven’t looked back since. I hope more people can follow the way I did.
Linux a toy? Some of the world’s fastest computers run Linux. All of the world’s fastest computers run some unix based system. Linux owns the virtualization market. Big Blue (IBM) makes billions of dollars off of its version of this toy [Linux]. Real business is done with Linux. I make my 30% of my living providing services on the Linux platform.
Additionally, Linux is taking over schools. In the US, Illinois’ education system is moving to linux computers. Even sponsoring linux laptops for high school graduates. I use both Linux and Windows in my personal and professional computing, I was reluctant to switch from Windows (as many of the converts in my area) because I’ve always used Windows. As humans are creatures of habit, if all you know about computing is Linux, that’s wha you’ll use.
Ah, but as important as eyeballs may be to Google, they’re nothing to the thousands of new *linux* programmers that will emerge with time. If only 1% of those 1.2 million laptops ends up in the hands of someone who learns to program, that’s a cool 12,000 new developers.
Microsoft *should* be trembling in fear.
Linux is by no means a toy. It inherits all of the industrial strength of UNIX, and its rate of evolution is faster than any other OS out there. The emerging markets is where Linux will shine, and as the purchasing power of these markets increases, thats when more money goes to the way of a Novell or Redhat, or even a local distro. This is not a zero sum game. Markets are expanding and thus the space that OS operate in. What Linux has however is the right price point to help emerging markets get their start. Finally, I want to respond to dawngrrl. Linux has the power to run business (it runs Google. Their entire server base is modified SuSE Linux), it is more secure than Windows (Windows does not have zero day protection from viruses like AppArmor or SELinux), and OpenOffice with the VBA scripting support from Novell will pretty run all the macros written for Excel out there. On top of that, my Linux laptop has the ability to create a secure VPN on the fly with drag and drop file copy integrated into the web browsers of GNOME and KDE. Can IE do that? Nope. The truth is, Linux actually has more tools than Windows to get things done. I started as a Windows administrator, but I found that many of the things I needed to do were solved right out of the box in Linux without me having to go back to my boss to write another cheque to MS. And yes, Microsoft licensing is brutal.
You’re right. Linux isn’t a toy. Little $100 laptops with scaled down applications flooding first grade classrooms are toys. And you’re right again, toys are great tools to learn on and developers love what they know. And in 20 years or so, when hearty, well adopted applications are consistently written that run on Linux and can provide the intuitive user experience along with the power, security, and functionality required then perhaps if Microsoft sits on its giant hands for those same 20 years we’ll see a contender in the ring.
I’m not bagging on Linux, I know its capability and I’ve seen some awesome stuff done with it, but I don’t use it, and here is why: I’ve never had a reason. Right now, it’s a developer’s OS. It’s simply not matured enough for the average user.
Now, it’s true, I’m a Daddy’s girl for sure, the “Big Daddy” that is, and in my Microsoft Mytopia the closest I’ve come to a Linux box is my boyfriend telling me he has one up on one the machines somewhere in the house. However, I do a lot more then word processing, personally and professionally, and I’ve yet to be presented with a problem that a windows box and MS apps couldn’t solve. I’m not saying those problems (or functionality, etc.) don’t exist, I’m just saying it’s not in the same ballpark yet, and I don’t see that happening in the near future.
dawngrrl I see two inconsistent statements from you. First you say “I know its capability…” then you say “the closest I’ve come to a Linux box is my boyfriend telling me he has one up on one the machines somewhere in the house”. I don’t know what you do for a living, but your arguments against Linux are more dismissive than anything else. I used to think the same way, then I started playing with Linux. Here’s a thought to leave you with. Are you someone who believes that a computer should be as easy as a hammer or a screwdriver? Guess what – a computer is not a tool, a computer is the entire tool chest. The whole point of a computer was so that it was reprogrammable, retaskable and multifunction. To do any of that requires that the user use some gray power. In the end, it comes down to attitude. Those who like to learn end up liking Linux when exposed to it because it is a rich platform – and more than just programming. Those who only want to use a computer as a tool, well any software or system that asks for some effort will be frowned upon wouldn’t it? The maturity in software you talk about is what Microsoft likes to profit from. Human nature – unwillingness to learn, unwillingness to change, unwillingness to put some effort to master a new skill, instant gratification. Microsoft realizes this and makes many technical decisions based on this and hides it all with a calming blue GUI. The best thing is they actually get you to believe that its “mature”. In the end, it’s your money – do what you want with it, and if you feel that you personally get value for the money – thats great. Those however who learn Linux begin to realize that for the majority of computing tasks, MS is money poorly spent, and in those emerging countries, poorly spent money means some people don’t get to eat. The $100 laptop may be a toy to you – but they are built to help kids read and write, and be able to do it in a place where there may be no schools or not even lights at night. The coolest part of all is that because it is Linux and a wireless box – those same kids as they grow older can ssh wirelessly into bigger computing centers that have much more power than a desktop. In the end, it’s a matter of expectation. Those poor kids will have their expectations set to an extent that those little laptops will do so much for them – and when they tinker with them, they will start to push them. When they do, the kids won’t be clamouring for Windows – they’re gonna want full-blown RedHat of SuSE Linux. Attitude and expectations dawngrrl, MS has successfully sold to your attitude and expectations. Try challenging yourself – and adjust your attitude and expectations, and tell me if MS is still worth the money. I took the challenge and found it wasn’t – after using Windows since the beginning. I’m a better computer user now than I ever was – and that’s beacuse Linux does something that Windows doesn’t – it demands that you learn.
Joe, thank you, your response has merit and was taken well with great appreciation. I don’t think we even disagree really – at least not completely.
I get passionate about the “beat down the giant” mentality and all too often I see people use that as the reason to promote Linux, open source in general, as if it’s the righteous path because Microsoft is a beast that needs to be tamed. I can’t stomach the “what they do is box people in and stupefy users – its all some blind you, trick you, steal your data and make you pay dearly for it conspiracy.
I suppose I tend to jump on the defense wagon pretty fast. I see first hand what MS does for users that could never survive and businesses that would fail in a Linux environment. They simply don’t have those resources. Yes, to challenge, to educate one self, to create, to extend, to expand, to evolve, these are all good things which I believe in deeply and I am fortunate enough to live them everyday……and all 4 of the machines on my desk are running Windows.
User friendly does not mean unlearned and there is nothing less challenging about my work because it’s done in a windows environment. In fact, I can work on my work, instead installing, configuring, and developing applications just so I can start to work on installing, configuring and developing applications. Efficiency is hugely valuable with millions on the price tag.
Either way, I suspect it’s a bit of the tomato / tomatto – the comment strikes home – developers/engineers love what they know and use. Perhaps I’ll peek over the fence one day and see how green the grass really is, smile. Warm regards.
Hi all, with reference dawngrrl.
Our company have some extremely difficult clients. One of which had a bad Linux experience prior to us arriving on the scene. (Incorrect distro choice and bad installation) The boss did not want anything to do with Linux.
Four months later a Linux server followed with all wonderfull goodies included. Continued problems on two of their remaining four pc’s resulted in the boss and his second in command willing to try Linux on their desktops. They haven’t looked back.
We have also installed themes from kde-look and their desktops look like xp machines, complete with word and excel icons etc. This has seriously reduced the familiarity issues. Very little to zero further education, evolving . . . . .
Try the Mandriva 2007 or OpenSuse 10.1. (10.2 due for release soon) The download version of Mandriva includes codecs etc for multimedia and OpenSuse requires a little simple configuration to add these.
Using Linux excluding improved security etc. is stiil cheaper than being caught with pirate os + apps. The reduced cost makes it easier to setup a new business.
I use both and run a beta OpenSuse release.
The doctor prescribes:
Start using Linux intermittently for two months and you will never look back. It can and probably will change your life. Tux Greetings.
No Tux’es were injured in this writing.