While getting my morning feed fix, I ran across this article by Charles Cooper called “Judging Wintel on the eve of a new era.” The article is opining that the rise of very low cost net books using low cost Windows licenses and cheap Intel Atom processors is going to spell doom for Microsoft and possibly Intel by cannibalizing full size Windows and high power CPU licenses. Well let me make this clear to you, if there is going to be a revolution, the revolution will not be televised. The revolution will not be brought to you by CNN, CNET and Fox News. The revolution will not be sponsored by AMD and Linux. The revolution will not take place.
Why do you ask? Do I have some magic crystal ball telling me the future of computing in the world? Do I not believe in cloud computing? Well, the answer is no and not totally.
The Great Net book Takeover
I have a net book, last night you might have read I installed Windows 7 on my net book. I think it’s the coolest gadget to come across in the $350 price range in ages and it’s amazing that all that can be had for what an iPod cost two years ago. I would give anyone who asks the same advice, “Sure, if you have the money to blow, buy one!” But there are a few things I wouldn’t do. I would never tell someone looking for their one and only computer to buy a net book. I have the larger of the net book class, the MSI Wind. It has a 10.1” Screen, upgraded to 1.5GB of ram and a 120GB hard drive. What’s not to like?
- I could never get any real work done at 1024×600 resolution on a 10” screen. No Photoshop, no real Excel, even many websites feel cramped.
- Although you can touch type on the keyboard on the Wind, you can’t do it comfortably and surely not for any extended period of time.
- As cool as it is, it’s cheap. It feels cheap. It cost $350. The case is fragile and it’s not exactly very well made.
That is not to say of course that it doesn’t have its appeal. It’s fantastically small, quite usable and ultra portable. My wife has one also and it now does duty as her personal laptop. That being said, her personal laptop use is pretty much Internet browsing, chat and email. Things technically she could do on an iPod Touch or similar device. I would see those devices becoming a bit larger and being more of a threat to net books than net books are to laptop and desktop computers.
A Computer in Every Home
This was Microsoft’s mission statement for a long time. I think even Bill Gates would tell you today that it was a bit short sighted. Microsoft wants many computers in every home and they are pulling it off. My mother and father have two. My oldest sister’s home has at least three. My younger sister’s home has two. My home has, well 8 or 9 but who’s counting. Windows Media center is making huge ground and could be powering your television sooner than you think. Home servers are becoming more and more common. In the next five years a common house hold could feasibly include a desktop, a laptop, a media center and a home server. Add several Xbox 360 or similar type media center extenders into the mix and your car, Sync is Microsoft too, and now you are talking about 7 operating systems in a normal family setting. A technology heavy family could tip a dozen easily.
Atom, Shmatom
Of course now there is a place for the Atom processor. Net books are a perfect fit and as it increases in energy efficiency, phones and portable devices like net tablets, portable game systems and media players will be next. All of these uses will do nothing to the lust for speed and power in processors. 3D graphics, touch interfaces, voice recognition, text to speech, video compression and decompression, games.. all of these things will consume more power than the latest CPUs can produce, and always will.
Despite the ‘it’s fast enough’ thoughts you may be having, it can and will always get faster. Industries much more power hungry than the average home user will require more and more power and it will make it’s way to the consumer and software companies will take advantage of it. You may have no idea what power hungry application will be essential to your daily life in 10 years, it might not even be on your radar.
So get out your plastic, buy your shiny new net book and enjoy it. But don’t put your card away thinking it will be the last computer you will ever need. You will probably find it’s the last computer you think of using. What’s your opinion. Is the net book a primary computer or an add on? Does it replace a notebook or is it an accessory. Is cloud computing an every day reality or a buzz word?
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Net books are fun for travelling and when you need some small things done. Most are underpowered in my opinion. 4GB flash card for a hd? get our of there!
MSI Wind is the better one i think. But still too light for normal use.
I almost got my wife one, I am kinda glad I didn’t since I always seem to need alot of computing power.
Its important to have a powerful laptop, otherwise they become useless quick.