It’s important to start by saying that this viz is in no way scientifically accurate, but it’s a very interesting tool to try and understand the kind of swings you can get by excluding social groups to varying degrees.
I am starting to feel more confident that Trump cannot win, but feel free to play with it yourself. You can control the following:
- Margin of Error: This controls what is defined as contested. A setting of 1.5% adds a 1.5% Margin of padding above and below for a total of 3%.
- Skews: These social shifts, account for the percentage of that population that the Republican Party stands to lose. A 10% Skew to the female vote shifts 10% of Republican voters in that social group and counts them as Democrat votes.
- Non-Party Voting: This controls how much of non-party aligned voters you a lot to Republican votes.
As I said, this is simply a way to understand how easily states can shift, as well as how the Electoral vote compares to the popular vote.